How Trump’s tariffs are hurting the office recovery

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Property Play newsletter with Diana Olick. Property Play covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, from individuals to venture capitalists, private equity funds, family offices, institutional investors and large public companies. 

After a slow improvement in demand for office space in the first part of this year, April brought a significant contraction. Tariffs may be behind it.

The 19 major office markets tracked by VTS, a real estate software, analytics and advisory firm, saw decreases in demand compared with March. VTS measures office demand by counting anyone who starts an office tour or searches for office space. The flow of new tenants into the office market dropped by 23% from March, and the total square footage being sought fell 26%.

It bore a striking similarity to the contraction from March to April of 2023, which coincided with the banking crisis tied to the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and later First Republic Bank, according to the VTS report. From March to April 2023, demand declined 25% and square footage sought decreased 38%.

The office market bounced back later in 2023, with initial strong demand, but then followed in fits and starts. That hasn’t been the case this time around.

“To the extent that tariffs impact the capital markets, there is an immediate pullback reaction,” said Max Saia, vice president of investor research at VTS. “We definitely saw a rebound in some markets, but it was not as immediate as what we saw post banking crisis.”